When it comes to fantasy football, there are a few big mistakes that are made over and over again. For the most part, these are completely preventable, but only if you are aware of what these mistakes are and take steps to avoid making them. Let’s take a look at what the top three mistakes are, and how to never make them again.
Mistake #1: Looking into the future
When you’re playing daily fantasy sports, you don’t want to look at potential too intently. You want to look at probable results. The future is great, but we are playing over a period of time that doesn’t include the future at all. It’s one thing to say that EJ Manuel will have a great career, it’s another thing to say he will perform well on opening day of this year. The Bills are a team full of potential, but that doesn’t mean that Manuel will post the numbers that you want him to. Looking into the future is a good way to scout out talent for later in the season or for future seasons, but it doesn’t really have much bearing on how you should draft your daily fantasy football roster.
Mistake #2: Having binding draft restrictions
You should have an idea of who you want to draft and who you want to avoid. This is a good thing because it gives you a general framework to work within when you begin. But, if something better comes along, or there is a last minute surprise while drafting your team, you need to be flexible. Usually, this happens because stats do not have the same worth that you believed that they would. For example, if you are used to playing at FanDuel, and then switch to DraftKings, you will find that FanDuel rewards field goals very heavily, especially from far away. DraftKings, on the other hand, doesn’t put much emphasis on the field goal, and instead rewards big bonuses to receivers and running backs that have big games. Because of this, you might be looking for consistency in these positions, but need to start looking for players that have potential for big games, or vice versa, depending on which sites you are using.
Mistake #3: Relying on the past
If you’ve won big in daily fantasy tournaments before, it can be easy to believe that your past successes are indicative of future success, too. It’s great that you did well, but it’s also quite possible that it was a fluke. Until you have replicated success over a long period of time, it’s impossible to confirm that you have a winning strategy. Football is a high variance game, and what won for you one week is not necessarily what will win for you the next weekend. You need to evaluate each week independently, and construct a winning strategy around it.
These mistakes are so common that we’ve all made them, especially #3. We make them because they seem like they should work. And they can work, but for most people when they find success with these, it’s not because they have the right strategy, but because they got lucky. Luck does not e qual long term success. So, as you get ready for the 2015 daily fantasy football season, look at what you are doing with a fresh perspective in order to truly evaluate whether or not you are a successful fantasy manager, or one that relies too much on your luck. By drafting the right players each weekend, you will find that your knowledge of how to do so strengthens a little bit at a time, and your strategy will become more and more sound.